Apollo Economist Torsten Slok: Why AI Delivers Zero Financial Payoff for S&P 493 Companies

The Disconnect: AI Hype Versus Reality

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, argues that artificial intelligence has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of the tech sector, despite massive investments and hype. His research note, "No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector," published on October 24, 2026, challenges the prevailing narrative by focusing on the S&P 493, which excludes the Magnificent 7 tech companies from the S&P 500. For broader context, explore our AI Tools Pricing.

Slok's findings are based on an examination of the "S&P 493," a segment of the S&P 500 that specifically excludes the seven largest tech companies, often referred to as the "Magnificent 7" (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla). By isolating these tech giants, the analysis aimed to reveal the true impact of AI on the broader corporate landscape.

Flatlines: Profit Margins and Revenue Per Worker

The core of Slok's argument rests on two key metrics: profit margins and revenue per worker. For the S&P 493, both indicators have remained flat, showing no measurable evidence of AI-driven productivity gains. This contrasts sharply with the Magnificent 7, where revenue per worker is reportedly increasing. The S&P 493's profit margins, according to the note, are stuck near 10%, indicating a lack of significant improvement despite the supposed AI revolution.

This observation aligns with other skeptical data points, such as Gartner's finding that only about 13% of Chief Information Officers (CIOs) report measurable returns from their AI investments. Such figures suggest that while AI tools are being adopted, their integration into core business processes to drive tangible financial benefits is proving more challenging than anticipated for many organizations.

Beyond Algorithms: The Structural Bottleneck

Slok posits that the lack of widespread financial payoff from AI stems from a structural bottleneck. He argues that business value is fundamentally tied to human elements that AI currently does not provide. These include judgment, accountability, trust, and culture. AI, in its current form, does not understand unwritten rules, ethical trade-offs, or fairness, which are critical components of effective business operations and decision-making.

This perspective highlights a crucial distinction: while AI excels at processing data and automating tasks, it struggles with the nuanced, human-centric aspects of business that often drive true innovation and value creation. The implication is that simply deploying AI technologies without addressing these deeper organizational and cultural factors may not yield the desired economic outcomes.

Implications for the Broader Economy

The Apollo economist's analysis also found no indication that AI is improving the San Francisco Fed's utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series. This broader economic indicator further supports the view that AI's impact on overall productivity is not yet materializing outside of a select group of tech companies. For businesses considering significant investments in AI tools, this research serves as a vital reminder to temper expectations and focus on strategic implementation rather than simply chasing the latest technological trends.

While the long-term potential of AI remains significant, the immediate financial returns appear concentrated within the tech sector itself. This suggests that companies outside of technology may need to re-evaluate their AI strategies, focusing on how these tools can genuinely enhance human capabilities and address specific business challenges that align with AI's current strengths, rather than expecting a universal, automatic boost to productivity and profits.

Conclusion: A Call for Realistic Expectations

Torsten Slok's research provides a sobering, yet important, perspective on the current state of AI's economic impact. It underscores that while the "Magnificent 7" tech companies are seeing gains, the broader corporate landscape, represented by the S&P 493, has yet to experience a measurable financial payoff from AI investments. The bottleneck appears to be structural, rooted in AI's current limitations regarding human judgment, accountability, and culture.

For businesses outside the tech sector, this analysis suggests a need for realistic expectations and a more nuanced approach to AI adoption. The focus should shift from simply investing in AI to strategically integrating it in ways that complement human capabilities and address specific, well-defined business problems, rather than anticipating a broad, immediate surge in productivity or profit margins. The journey to widespread AI-driven economic transformation is clearly more complex than often portrayed.

Sources

• AI delivers ‘zero financial payoff’ to most companies, Apollo economist says | TechCrunch
• No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector | The Daily Spark